CHAPTER (real GDP) GDP at purchasers’ prices in

CHAPTER 04Analysis and Findings4.

1 IntroductionThis chapter is focussed on analysing the impact of some macroeconomic variables; workers’ remittances, government consumption, total labour force and the openness to international trade on the economic growth of Sri Lanka. The dependent variable, economic growth is measured using the proxy variable; real gross domestic production. The analysis is carried out using the data collected over the period 1990 to 2016 from the World Bank.4.2 Presentation of Data4.2.1 Description of VariablesVariable DescriptionReal gross domestic production (real GDP) GDP at purchasers’ prices in constant US$ millionWorkers’ remittances Transfers made by migrants employed and resident in foreign countries to their relatives in Sri Lanka in current US$ millionGovernment consumption General government final consumption expenditure which includes government current expenditures for the purchase of goods and services measured in current US$ millionTotal labour force The total number of people aged 15 and older who supply labour for the production of goods and services during a specified periodOpenness to international trade The ratio of total trade (sum of total exports and imports) to GDP4.

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2.2 Analysis of VariablesFigure 4.1 shows the behaviour of real gross domestic production of Sri Lanka over the period 1990-2016. Real GDP shows a continuous increasing trend from US$ 20,612 million in 1990 to US$ 79,707 million in 2016 which is an increase of 286.7% over 27 years.Figure 4. SEQ Figure_4 * ARABIC 1: Real Gross Domestic Production (1990-2016)Source: World Bank Open Data, 2018, World BankFigure 4.

2 shows the flow of workers’ remittances during the period 1990-2016. The remittances by migrants have increased from US$ 401 million in 1990 to US$ 7,257 million in 2016.Figure 4.

SEQ Figure_4 * ARABIC 2: Workers’ Remittances (1990-2016)Source: World Bank Open Data, 2018, World BankThe relationship between the flow of remittances and real GDP over the period 1990-2016 is shown in figure 4.3.Figure 4. SEQ Figure_4 * ARABIC 3: Real GDP and Remittances (1990-2016)Source: World Bank Open Data, 2018, World BankThe relationship between real GDP and workers’ remittances show a positive trend.

Hence the study is focussed on examining whether there is a significant impact of remittances on economic growth of Sri Lanka.Figure 4. SEQ Figure_4 * ARABIC 4: Real GDP and Government ConsumptionSource: World Bank Open Data, 2018, World BankFigure 4.4 shows the relationship of government consumption expenditure with the level of real GDP. Real GDP shows a positive relationship with the change in government consumption expenditure though in some periods it has declined with the increase in government consumption.Figure 4. SEQ Figure_4 * ARABIC 5: Real GDP and Labour ForceSource: World Bank Open Data, 2018, World BankThe graphical illustration of the relationship between total labour force of Sri Lanka and the real GDP is shown in figure 4.5 considering the period 1990-2016.

It can be noticed that the number of labour force has caused to increase the real GDP of the country in many years though there are slight contradictions in some periods.Figure 4. SEQ Figure_4 * ARABIC 6: Real GDP and Openness to International TradeSource: World Bank Open Data, 2018, World BankFigure 4.6 demonstrates the relationship between trade openness and real GDP. According to the figure economic growth is negatively associated with the openness to international trade.Hence the research study is focussed on investigating the statistical impact of these variables; remittance flow, government consumption expenditure, total labour force and the trade openness on the economic growth of Sri Lanka.4.3 Empirical Analysis4.

3.1 Data CollectionIt is focussed on examining the empirical impact of workers’ remittances on economic growth of Sri Lanka using annual data during the period 1990-2015. This study further investigates the impact of other macroeconomic variables; total labour force, government consumption and openness to international trade on Sri Lankan economic growth using secondary data collected from the World Bank.4.3.

1 Formulation of the ModelAfter reviewing the theoretical and empirical literature, the widely used econometric model to investigate the impact of migrant workers’ remittances and other macroeconomic variables on economic growth can be shown as follows.Yi = ?0 + ?1 Ri + ?2 Gi + ?3 Li + ?4 Ti + ui(1)Yi represents the real gross domestic production of Sri Lanka at the ith period which is the dependent variable of the model. It is used as a proxy to measure the economic growth of Sri Lanka.

Ri represents the workers’ remittances at ith point of time, Gi represents the government consumption and Li and Ti represent the total labour force and openness to international trade respectively whereas the error term is represented by ui.4.3.

2 Descriptive StatisticsTable 4.1: Summary StatisticsVariable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxReal GDPRemittancesGovernment ConsumptionLabour forceTrade openness 2727272727 430512589.3333379.2227915449.

6823 18176.882323.2592332.106493564.

9.1301292 206124017847019888.4636 79707725774088630101.8864Table 4.1 provides the descriptive statistics of the variables in which the variables cover data of 27 years from 1990-2016.4.

3.3 Testing AssumptionsThe employability of Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) is based on various assumptions. Most importantly the formulated regression model must be linear in parameters and may or may not be linear in variables. The equation (1) shows the model is linear in parameters as well as the variables.

Moreover, it is important that the variance in residuals should be constant or homoscedastic in order to use CLRM. It implies that the variance of each ui is constant;var(ui ? X) = ?2ADDIN CSL_CITATION { “citationItems” : { “id” : “ITEM-1”, “itemData” : { “ISBN” : “9780073375779”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Gujarati”, “given” : “Damodar N.”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Porter”, “given” : “Dawn C.

“, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “id” : “ITEM-1”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2011” }, “title” : “The McGraw-Hill Series”, “type” : “book” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=6d550043-758c-48cb-aaff-f7d190c8728d” } , “mendeley” : { “formattedCitation” : “(Gujarati and Porter, 2011)”, “plainTextFormattedCitation” : “(Gujarati and Porter, 2011)”, “previouslyFormattedCitation” : “(Gujarati and Porter, 2011)” }, “properties” : { }, “schema” : “https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json” }(Gujarati and Porter, 2011)Breusch-Pagan test is employed to test the homoscedasticity of the variance in residuals.Table 4.2: Breusch-Pagan Test ResultsBreusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticityH0: Constant variableVariables: fitted values of Real GDPChi2 (1)= 3.65Prob ; chi2= 0.

0560Hypothesis of Homoscedasticity (Hypothesis 1)H0 = Residuals are homoscedasticH1 = Residuals are not homoscedastic / residuals are heteroscedasticBased on the results in table 4.2, we fail to reject the null hypothesis concluding that the variance of residuals is constant.Another assumption to be fulfilled in CLRM is the absence of multicollinearity in variables. It is important that the independent variables are not perfectly collinear. In other words, a regressor should not be a linear function of another.Table 4.3: Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Test ResultVariable VIF 1/VIFRemittances 6.

46 0.154761Gvt consumption 8.87 0.112759Labour force 4.39 0.227959Trade openness 5.41 0.184738Mean VIF 6.

28 If VIF ; 10, regressors are collinear. According to table 4.3 the independent variables are not collinear since VIF (6.28) ; 10.The normality of the behaviour of residuals is also an important assumption to be realized in using CLRM.

Shapiro-Wilk test is used to test the hypothesis that the distribution is normal.Table 4.4: Shapiro-Wilk Test ResultsShapiro-Wilk W test for normal dataVariable ObsW V z Prob;ze 27 0.95606 1.292 0.526 0.299522Hypothesis of Normality (Hypothesis 2)H0 = Residuals are normally distributedH1 = Residuals are not normally distributedThe residuals are normally distributed since H0 is not rejected at the significance level of 0.05.

Hence CLRM can be employed in the data set.4.3.4 Empirical ResultsEstimation of the model is carried out using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique with the real GDP as the dependent variable.

The regression results are presented in table 4.5.Table 4.

5: Classical Linear Regression ResultsSource SS dfMS Number of obs= 27ModelResidual 8.5549e+0935449183.9 422 2.1387e+091611326.

54 F (4,22) = 1327.31Prob ; F = 0.0000R-squared = 0.9959Total 8.5904e+09 26 330398861 Adj R-squared = 0.9951Root MSE = 1269.4Real GDP Coef. Std.

Err. t P; t 95% Conf. Interval Remittances 5.99706 .272381 22.02 0.000 5.

432176 6.561943Gvt consumption 1.304749 .3178934 4.

10 0.000 .6454788 1.

96402Labour force .0068066 .0010564 6.44 0.000 .0046158 .

0089975Trade openness 12192.72 4450.943 2.74 0.

012 2962.033 21423.41_cons -39082.97 7123.

622 -5.49 0.000 -53856.46 -24309.49The estimated model can be presented using the CLRM results as in the equation (2).Yi = -39082.

97 + 5.99706 Ri + 1.304749 Gi + .0068066 Li + 12192.72 Ti + ui (2)Workers’ remittances, government consumption expenditure, total labour force and also the openness to international trade are positively related with the real GDP and all the independent variables are statistically significant with p-values less than 0.05.The R2 value implies that 99.59% of real GDP is explained by the independent variables indicating the high reliablity of the independent variables.

It is further proved through adjusted R2 value of 99.51%.Migrant workers’ remittances in the model prove to be an important contributor to economic growth of Sri Lanka. The empirical results support the positive relationship between remittances and economic growth. The estimated coefficient indicates that a US$ 1 increase in remittance inflows increases the real GDP by US$ 6 approximately. Government consumption and labour force also contribute to the economic growth of Sri Lanka. The results indicate a US$ 1 increase in government consumption expenditure cause an increase of US$ 1.3 in real GDP and the addition of 1 individual to the labour force of Sri Lanka helps in increasing the real GDP by US$ 0.

007. Certainly, international trade can be considered as the most important contributor to the Sri Lankan economic growth since approximately US$ 12,193 is added to real GDP with a 1% increase in openness to international trade.4.

3.5 Discussion of ResultsThe coefficient of government consumption accurately reflects theoretical foundation laid by the Keynesian theory implying a positive impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth of a country in the Sri Lankan context. A number of empirical studies have also focussed on the relation between government consumption and economic growth. ADDIN CSL_CITATION { “citationItems” : { “id” : “ITEM-1”, “itemData” : { “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Dandan”, “given” : “Mwafaq M”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “International Conference on Economics and Finance Research”, “id” : “ITEM-1”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2011” }, “page” : “467-471”, “title” : “Government Expenditures and ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JORDAN”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “4” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.

com/documents/?uuid=e9da25e3-1bb7-466e-aeba-fbdbd6d08f2e” }, { “id” : “ITEM-2”, “itemData” : { “ISSN” : “02548372”, “abstract” : “This paper examines the causality between government expenditure and economic growth along with money supply in a trivariate framework by applying a VAR techniques to South Korean data for the period 1954-94. The Phillips-Perron (PP) unit roots tests and Johansen’s tests of cointegration are performed. The diagnostic tests for adequacy of the model also performed and passed.

This study finds that there is a bidirectional causality between government expenditures and economic growth in South Korea. It is also found that money supply affects economic growth as well. The results are consistent with some of the past studies that detect a feedback between GDP and expenditure.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Cheng”, “given” : “Benjamin S”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Lai”, “given” : “Tin Wei”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Journal of Economic Development”, “id” : “ITEM-2”, “issue” : “1”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “1997” }, “page” : “11-24”, “title” : “Government Expenditures and Economic Growth in South Korea: A VAR Approach”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “22” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.

com/documents/?uuid=37235c59-624b-4d63-91bc-d63b72359e9a” }, { “id” : “ITEM-3”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1111/j.1467-9957.2007.01028.x”, “ISBN” : “1467-9957”, “ISSN” : “14636786”, “abstract” : “In this paper, we examine the growth effects of government expenditure for a panel of 30 developing countries over the 1970s and 1980s, with a particular focus on disaggregated government expenditures. Our methodology improves on previous research on this topic by explicitly recognizing the role of the government budget constraint and the possible biases arising from omitted variables.

Our primary results are twofold. First, the share of government capital expenditure in GDP is positively and significantly correlated with economic growth, but current expenditure is insignificant. Second, at the disaggregated level, government investment in education and total expenditures in education are the only outlays that are significantly associated with growth once the budget constraint and omitted variables are taken into consideration.

“, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Bose”, “given” : “Niloy”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Haque”, “given” : “M. Emranul”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Osborn”, “given” : “Denise R.”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “The Manchester School”, “id” : “ITEM-3”, “issue” : “5”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2007” }, “page” : “533-556”, “title” : “Public expenditure and economic growth: A disaggregated analysis for developing countries”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “75” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=95ff6ad0-88a7-4e6f-910e-aed73f4e4a71” } , “mendeley” : { “formattedCitation” : “(Cheng and Lai, 1997; Bose, Haque and Osborn, 2007; Dandan, 2011)”, “manualFormatting” : “Cheng and Lai (1997), Bose, Haque and Osborn (2007) and Dandan (2011)”, “plainTextFormattedCitation” : “(Cheng and Lai, 1997; Bose, Haque and Osborn, 2007; Dandan, 2011)”, “previouslyFormattedCitation” : “(Cheng and Lai, 1997; Bose, Haque and Osborn, 2007; Dandan, 2011)” }, “properties” : { }, “schema” : “https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json” }Cheng and Lai (1997), Bose, Haque and Osborn (2007) and Dandan (2011) have found that government spending is positively related with economic growth.There is no theoretical consensus on whether trade openness encourages economic growth.

However, David Recardo’s theory of comparative advantage and new endogenous growth models emphasize indirect positive impact of trade openness to economic growth. Similarly, the results obtained for Sri Lanka on the impact of trade openness to economic growth confirms a positive trend proving the theoretical base. On the empirical literature, various studies have been conducted to examine the relationship between trade openness and economic growth. Mixed conclusions have been reached at across methodologies and countries. ADDIN CSL_CITATION { “citationItems” : { “id” : “ITEM-1”, “itemData” : { “ISSN” : “18242979”, “abstract” : “The purpose of this paper is to analyse the economic growth of China and India in terms of their integration in the global economy. We begin with a discussion of some stylized facts concerning their recent economic growth, the most significant institutional reforms, with particular reference to trade relations, and their impact on their economic development. We then propose a descriptive analysis of economic growth, opening up of the economies and trade specialisation, by comparing the features and trends of the two countries (by considering trade and foreign direct investment data).

We have also estimated some econometric relations between economic growth and trade/openness, with the addition of control variables (such as the gross fixed capital formation). We initially used a panel data model for the two countries, to be estimated with fixed effects; to test for reverse causality, we re-estimated the fixed effects model by 2SLS (with the inclusion of specific instrumental variables). The effect on economic growth (in terms of GDP per capita) of our variables of interest–openness and FDI–remains positive and statistically significant in all specifications, which confirms our findings even if we treat these variables as endogenous variables. The results prove the positive growth effects, for the two countries, of opening up and integrating in the world economy. Note that the robust growth of these two “giants” has contained the initial impact of the recent global crisis and is now sustaining the recovery of the entire world economy. Other policy relevant implications are discussed in the concluding section.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Marelli”, “given” : “Enrico”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Signorelli”, “given” : “Marcello”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “The European Journal of Comparative Economics”, “id” : “ITEM-1”, “issue” : “1”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2011” }, “page” : “129-154”, “title” : “China and India : Openness , Trade and Effects on Economic Growth”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “8” }, “uris” : “http://www.

mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=19b53c0d-8290-4a11-bc78-af1505171ef6″ }, { “id” : “ITEM-2”, “itemData” : { “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Dollar”, “given” : “David”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Kraay”, “given” : “Aart”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “The Economic Journal”, “id” : “ITEM-2”, “issue” : “493”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2004” }, “page” : “22-49”, “title” : “Trade , Growth , and Poverty”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “114” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=72ecc4fb-2496-4dc8-80d7-0d4792f1ab2c” }, { “id” : “ITEM-3”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1257/aer.

103.6.2196″, “ISBN” : “9780691150321”, “ISSN” : “00028282”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Frankel”, “given” : “Jeffrey A”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Romer”, “given” : “David”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “American Economic Review”, “id” : “ITEM-3”, “issue” : “3”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “1999” }, “page” : “379-399”, “title” : “Does Trade Cause Growth ?”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “89” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=f69d1616-d39a-4f5b-b2e5-0613326e763a” }, { “id” : “ITEM-4”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.

1080/135048599352592″, “ISBN” : “1350485993”, “ISSN” : “13504851”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Bahmani-Oskooee”, “given” : “Mohsen”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Niroomand”, “given” : “Farhang”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Applied Economics Letters”, “id” : “ITEM-4”, “issue” : “9”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “1999” }, “page” : “557-561”, “title” : “Openness and economic growth: An empirical investigation”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “6” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=604c0b38-23f3-403c-86d2-d5e44c6616da” } , “mendeley” : { “formattedCitation” : “(Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand, 1999; Frankel and Romer, 1999; Dollar and Kraay, 2004; Marelli and Signorelli, 2011)”, “manualFormatting” : “Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand (1999), Frankel and Romer (1999), Dollar and Kraay (2004) and Marelli and Signorelli (2011)”, “plainTextFormattedCitation” : “(Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand, 1999; Frankel and Romer, 1999; Dollar and Kraay, 2004; Marelli and Signorelli, 2011)”, “previouslyFormattedCitation” : “(Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand, 1999; Frankel and Romer, 1999; Dollar and Kraay, 2004; Marelli and Signorelli, 2011)” }, “properties” : { }, “schema” : “https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json” }Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand (1999), Frankel and Romer (1999), Dollar and Kraay (2004) and Marelli and Signorelli (2011) have confirmed the positive impact of openness to trade on economic growth. In contrast ADDIN CSL_CITATION { “citationItems” : { “id” : “ITEM-1”, “itemData” : { “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Rigobon”, “given” : “Roberto”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Rodrik”, “given” : “Dani”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “The Economics of Transition”, “id” : “ITEM-1”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2005” }, “page” : “533-564”, “title” : “RULE OF LAW, DEMOCRACY, OPENNESS, AND INCOME: ESTIMATING THE INTERRELATIONSHIPS”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “13” }, “uris” : “http://www.

mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=e789d550-5c8d-477d-b3d7-707acda504a1″ } , “mendeley” : { “formattedCitation” : “(Rigobon and Rodrik, 2005)”, “manualFormatting” : “Rigobon and Rodrik (2005)”, “plainTextFormattedCitation” : “(Rigobon and Rodrik, 2005)”, “previouslyFormattedCitation” : “(Rigobon and Rodrik, 2005)” }, “properties” : { }, “schema” : “https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json” }Rigobon and Rodrik (2005) have found a significant negative impact of trade openness on economic growth.However, there is still no theory developed on the relationship between workers’ remittances and economic growth. Hence remittances are used in the study as an independent variable to extend the theory and examine the growth effects of remittances. The result demonstrates a significant positive impact on economic growth and it is similar to those found in the prior empirical studies such as ADDIN CSL_CITATION { “citationItems” : { “id” : “ITEM-1”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1108/17544401211263946”, “ISBN” : “1120130255”, “ISSN” : “17544408”, “abstract” : “This study investigates the relationship between workersu2019 remittances and economic growth in China and Korea by employing time series data from period of 1980 to 2009.

Cointegration results confirm that there exist significant positive long run relationship between remittances and economic growth in Korea, while, significant negative relationship exist between remittances and economic growth in China. Error correction model confirms the significant positive short run relationship of workersu2019 remittances with economic growth in Korea while, the results of China were insignificant in short run. Causality analysis confirms unidirectional causality runs from workersu2019 remittances to economic growth in both China and Korea. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that Korea should form friendly policy to ensure the continuous inflows of workersu2019 remittances and their efficient utilization to ensure economic growth.

On the other hand, China should keep an eye to reduce voluntary unemployment leads to decrease in productivity and growth in the country.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Jawaid”, “given” : “Syed Tehseen”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Raza”, “given” : “Syed Ali”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Worker’S Remittances”, “id” : “ITEM-1”, “issue” : “3”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2012” }, “page” : “185-193”, “title” : “Workers u2019 remittances and economic growth in China and Korea : an empirical analysis”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “5” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.

com/documents/?uuid=faeddd6f-7a9b-4c2d-a5b0-eaa6f7043447″ }, { “id” : “ITEM-2”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1080/00220388.2014.895815”, “ISBN” : “0022-0388
1743-9140”, “ISSN” : “17439140”, “abstract” : “AbstractThis paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Results from variants of an empirical model suggest that while, on average, there is at best no association between remittances and growth in developing countries, there is a positive association between these variables in SIDS. This finding holds for SIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific but not for those in Latin America and the Caribbean. Relationships between remittances, economic volatility, and household labour supply are offered as reasons for these findings.

; AbstractThis paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Results from variants of an empirical model suggest that while, on average, there is at best no association between remittances and growth in developing countries, there is a positive association between these variables in SIDS. This finding holds for SIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific but not for those in Latin America and the Caribbean. Relationships between remittances, economic volatility, and household labour supply are offered as reasons for these findings.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Feeny”, “given” : “Simon”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Iamsiraroj”, “given” : “Sasi”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “McGillivray”, “given” : “Mark”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Journal of Development Studies”, “id” : “ITEM-2”, “issue” : “8”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2014” }, “page” : “1055-1066”, “publisher” : “Taylor & Francis”, “title” : “Remittances and Economic Growth: Larger Impacts in Smaller Countries?”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “50” }, “uris” : “http://www.

mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=19b547a6-9349-4460-8cd5-06652a919cd0″ }, { “id” : “ITEM-3”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1016/j.aebj.

2015.06.001″, “ISSN” : “22144625”, “abstract” : “This empirical research paper focuses on establishing a relationship between external determinants and economic growth of Pakistan economy. Empirical analyses are carried out with time series econometric techniques using data over the period of 1977-2013. The main finding is that external determinants such as foreign remittances, foreign direct investment, and foreign imports matter from a growth perspective. Foreign remittances and foreign direct investment have a significant positive role in the growth process of Pakistan economy. Furthermore, it is found that foreign imports have adversely influenced the economic growth of Pakistan. The study recommends that policy makers shall take appropriate steps to increase the inflow of both foreign remittances and foreign direct investment in order to achieve the long run economic growth.

“, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Tahir”, “given” : “Muhammad”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Khan”, “given” : “Imran”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Shah”, “given” : “Afzal Moshadi”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Arab Economic and Business Journal”, “id” : “ITEM-3”, “issue” : “2”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2015” }, “page” : “82-89”, “publisher” : “Korea Institute of Oriental Medicine”, “title” : “Foreign Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Imports and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “10” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=b567b08b-0ad0-48e3-92af-373945f40dfb” }, { “id” : “ITEM-4”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1016/j.

econ.2016.06.001″, “ISBN” : “19452829”, “ISSN” : “15177580”, “PMID” : “1152557”, “abstract” : “There is scattered evidence suggesting a positive impact of international remittances on economic insecurity, at both a macroeconomic and household levels.

However, there has not to date been a comprehensive and systematic analysis of this issue that takes into account the various complexities and nuances. This paper illustrates that cross-country generalizations about the impact of remittances on economic security are useful only up to a certain point; beyond that their effect can be influenced by the interplay of various factors relating to the motivations and characteristics of migrants, economic/social/political conditions in the country of origin, immigration policies and conditions in the host country, and the size and concentrations of the remittances. The policy implications outlined in the paper include the need for caution and retrospection in certain instances as well as action and international collaboration in other areas.

“, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Meyer”, “given” : “Dietmar”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Shera”, “given” : “Adela”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “EconomiA”, “id” : “ITEM-4”, “issue” : “2”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2016” }, “page” : “147-155”, “publisher” : “National Association of Postgraduate Centers in Economics, ANPEC”, “title” : “The impact of remittances on economic growth: An econometric model”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “18” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=9c01200b-f35a-41a1-9326-969c046880ed” }, { “id” : “ITEM-5”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1108/IJSE-11-2013-0255”, “ISBN” : “1120130255”, “ISSN” : “0306-8293”, “abstract” : “Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic impact of migrant workers’ remittances on economic growth in four developing Asian countries namely: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilizes annual time series data over the period 1976-2012 and the ordinary least squares as an analytical technique for parameters estimation. Findings – Empirical results support the existence of a significant positive relationship between migrant workers remittances and economic growth.

The other control variables such as foreign direct investment, openness to trade and infrastructure are also found to be statistically significant with expected signs. Practical implications – The findings of this study are expected to guide policy makers in formulating the right and relevant policies through which migrant workers’ remittances can be made more productive and its benefits for both migrants and the country of origin are maximized. Consequently, it will foster economic growth and development. Originality/value – This paper provides some valuable evidences on the significance of migrant workers remittances as a source of economic growth.

Moreover, the study differs from the erstwhile studies in terms of control variables, time period and method of estimation. Finally, the empirical results established are relatively robust.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Azam”, “given” : “Muhammad”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “International Journal of Social Economics”, “id” : “ITEM-5”, “issue” : “8”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2015” }, “page” : “690-705”, “title” : “The role of migrant workers remittances in fostering economic growth”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “42” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=75ff920a-5031-4ff5-abca-d95bbb0aef4f” }, { “id” : “ITEM-6”, “itemData” : { “ISSN” : “2219-1933”, “abstract” : “International migration and large workersu2019 remittance inflows have been prominent features of the Sri Lankan economy for many decades. Incorporating workersu2019 remittances among other variables into a growth model, and employing time series annual data over the 1977-2012 period, this study investigates the impact of workersu2019 remittances on economic growth in Sri Lanka. The empirical evidences based on the vector error correction model indicate a positive direct as well as indirect relationship between workersu2019 remittances and economic growth in the long-term. However, the Wald test results demonstrate that there is no short-run causality between workersu2019 remittances and economic growth, either directly or indirectly.

“, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Paranavithana”, “given” : “Harsha”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “International Journal of Business and Social Science”, “id” : “ITEM-6”, “issue” : “10”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2014” }, “page” : “44-56”, “title” : “Do Workers’ Remittances Cushion Economic Growth in Sri Lanka?”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “5” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=8c4b6570-4efe-47f9-9061-d990b9319774” }, { “id” : “ITEM-7”, “itemData” : { “abstract” : “Incorporating migrant remittances among other variables into a growth model, and employing panel data over the 1970-2008 period, this study investigates the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth in South Asia. Migrant remittances are found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth. A significant positive interactive effect of remittances on economic growth is detected through education and financial sector development.

“, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “V”, “family” : “Cooray”, “given” : “Arusha”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Review of International Economics”, “id” : “ITEM-7”, “issue” : “5”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2012” }, “page” : “985-998”, “title” : “The impact of migrant remittances on economic growth: evidence from South Asia”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “20” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=86d72e9a-2960-4eb5-a026-03c1b2dad5ae” } , “mendeley” : { “formattedCitation” : “(Cooray, 2012; Jawaid and Raza, 2012; Feeny, Iamsiraroj and McGillivray, 2014; Paranavithana, 2014; Azam, 2015; Tahir, Khan and Shah, 2015; Meyer and Shera, 2016)”, “manualFormatting” : “Cooray (2012), Feeny, Iamsiraroj and McGillivray (2014), Paranavithana (2014), Azam (2015), Tahir, Khan and Shah (2015) Meyer and Shera (2016)”, “plainTextFormattedCitation” : “(Cooray, 2012; Jawaid and Raza, 2012; Feeny, Iamsiraroj and McGillivray, 2014; Paranavithana, 2014; Azam, 2015; Tahir, Khan and Shah, 2015; Meyer and Shera, 2016)”, “previouslyFormattedCitation” : “(Cooray, 2012; Jawaid and Raza, 2012; Feeny, Iamsiraroj and McGillivray, 2014; Paranavithana, 2014; Azam, 2015; Tahir, Khan and Shah, 2015; Meyer and Shera, 2016)” }, “properties” : { }, “schema” : “https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json” }Cooray (2012), Feeny, Iamsiraroj and McGillivray (2014), Paranavithana (2014), Azam (2015), Tahir, Khan and Shah (2015) Meyer and Shera (2016) in contrary to those found by ADDIN CSL_CITATION { “citationItems” : { “id” : “ITEM-1”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.

1108/17544401211263946″, “ISBN” : “1120130255”, “ISSN” : “17544408”, “abstract” : “This study investigates the relationship between workersu2019 remittances and economic growth in China and Korea by employing time series data from period of 1980 to 2009. Cointegration results confirm that there exist significant positive long run relationship between remittances and economic growth in Korea, while, significant negative relationship exist between remittances and economic growth in China. Error correction model confirms the significant positive short run relationship of workersu2019 remittances with economic growth in Korea while, the results of China were insignificant in short run. Causality analysis confirms unidirectional causality runs from workersu2019 remittances to economic growth in both China and Korea.

Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that Korea should form friendly policy to ensure the continuous inflows of workersu2019 remittances and their efficient utilization to ensure economic growth. On the other hand, China should keep an eye to reduce voluntary unemployment leads to decrease in productivity and growth in the country.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Jawaid”, “given” : “Syed Tehseen”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” }, { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Raza”, “given” : “Syed Ali”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Worker’S Remittances”, “id” : “ITEM-1”, “issue” : “3”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2012” }, “page” : “185-193”, “title” : “Workers u2019 remittances and economic growth in China and Korea : an empirical analysis”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “5” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.

com/documents/?uuid=faeddd6f-7a9b-4c2d-a5b0-eaa6f7043447″ }, { “id” : “ITEM-2”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1080/10168730903119443”, “ISBN” : “1016-8737
1743-517X”, “ISSN” : “10168737”, “abstract” : “This paper empirically investigates the role of trade, remittances, and institutions in economic development in a large sample of developing countries using recently developed instruments for all these variables. Both cross-country (over 30 years) and dynamic panel data (over 5-year periods) regressions of growth rates on instrumented trade, remittances, and institutions provide evidence of a significant impact of trade, institutions, and remittances on growth.

While institutions foster growth, remittances hamper it. The effect of trade on growth is positive in cross-sectional regressions but ambiguous in dynamic panel data regressions. These results are indicative of a more important role for trade in explaining growth in the very long run compared with over shorter horizons. u00a9 2009 Korea International Economic Association.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Le”, “given” : “Thanh”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “International Economic Journal”, “id” : “ITEM-2”, “issue” : “3”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2009” }, “page” : “391-408”, “title” : “Trade, remittances, institutions, and economic growth”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “23” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=406aaa59-0ff1-483c-b898-0062d2b39f9a” } , “mendeley” : { “formattedCitation” : “(Le, 2009; Jawaid and Raza, 2012)”, “manualFormatting” : “Le (2009), Jawaid and Raza (2012)”, “plainTextFormattedCitation” : “(Le, 2009; Jawaid and Raza, 2012)”, “previouslyFormattedCitation” : “(Le, 2009; Jawaid and Raza, 2012)” }, “properties” : { }, “schema” : “https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.

json” }Le (2009), Jawaid and Raza (2012) in the world context implying a negative impact on economic growth. However, the positive impact of remittances on Sri Lankan economic growth is proved by previous studies; ADDIN CSL_CITATION { “citationItems” : { “id” : “ITEM-1”, “itemData” : { “DOI” : “10.1108/IJSE-11-2013-0255”, “ISBN” : “1120130255”, “ISSN” : “0306-8293”, “abstract” : “Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic impact of migrant workers’ remittances on economic growth in four developing Asian countries namely: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilizes annual time series data over the period 1976-2012 and the ordinary least squares as an analytical technique for parameters estimation. Findings – Empirical results support the existence of a significant positive relationship between migrant workers remittances and economic growth. The other control variables such as foreign direct investment, openness to trade and infrastructure are also found to be statistically significant with expected signs. Practical implications – The findings of this study are expected to guide policy makers in formulating the right and relevant policies through which migrant workers’ remittances can be made more productive and its benefits for both migrants and the country of origin are maximized. Consequently, it will foster economic growth and development.

Originality/value – This paper provides some valuable evidences on the significance of migrant workers remittances as a source of economic growth. Moreover, the study differs from the erstwhile studies in terms of control variables, time period and method of estimation. Finally, the empirical results established are relatively robust.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Azam”, “given” : “Muhammad”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “International Journal of Social Economics”, “id” : “ITEM-1”, “issue” : “8”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2015” }, “page” : “690-705”, “title” : “The role of migrant workers remittances in fostering economic growth”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “42” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.

com/documents/?uuid=75ff920a-5031-4ff5-abca-d95bbb0aef4f” }, { “id” : “ITEM-2”, “itemData” : { “ISSN” : “2219-1933”, “abstract” : “International migration and large workersu2019 remittance inflows have been prominent features of the Sri Lankan economy for many decades. Incorporating workersu2019 remittances among other variables into a growth model, and employing time series annual data over the 1977-2012 period, this study investigates the impact of workersu2019 remittances on economic growth in Sri Lanka. The empirical evidences based on the vector error correction model indicate a positive direct as well as indirect relationship between workersu2019 remittances and economic growth in the long-term. However, the Wald test results demonstrate that there is no short-run causality between workersu2019 remittances and economic growth, either directly or indirectly.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “”, “family” : “Paranavithana”, “given” : “Harsha”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “International Journal of Business and Social Science”, “id” : “ITEM-2”, “issue” : “10”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2014” }, “page” : “44-56”, “title” : “Do Workers’ Remittances Cushion Economic Growth in Sri Lanka?”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “5” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=8c4b6570-4efe-47f9-9061-d990b9319774” }, { “id” : “ITEM-3”, “itemData” : { “abstract” : “Incorporating migrant remittances among other variables into a growth model, and employing panel data over the 1970-2008 period, this study investigates the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth in South Asia.

Migrant remittances are found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth. A significant positive interactive effect of remittances on economic growth is detected through education and financial sector development.”, “author” : { “dropping-particle” : “V”, “family” : “Cooray”, “given” : “Arusha”, “non-dropping-particle” : “”, “parse-names” : false, “suffix” : “” } , “container-title” : “Review of International Economics”, “id” : “ITEM-3”, “issue” : “5”, “issued” : { “date-parts” : “2012” }, “page” : “985-998”, “title” : “The impact of migrant remittances on economic growth: evidence from South Asia”, “type” : “article-journal”, “volume” : “20” }, “uris” : “http://www.mendeley.com/documents/?uuid=86d72e9a-2960-4eb5-a026-03c1b2dad5ae” } , “mendeley” : { “formattedCitation” : “(Cooray, 2012; Paranavithana, 2014; Azam, 2015)”, “manualFormatting” : “Cooray (2012), Paranavithana (2014) and Azam (2015)”, “plainTextFormattedCitation” : “(Cooray, 2012; Paranavithana, 2014; Azam, 2015)”, “previouslyFormattedCitation” : “(Cooray, 2012; Paranavithana, 2014; Azam, 2015)” }, “properties” : { }, “schema” : “https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json” }Cooray (2012), Paranavithana (2014) and Azam (2015) and no study has yet found a negative or no impact of workers’ remittances on economic growth of Sri Lanka.

Hence, the study is successful in extending the theory by incorporating workers’ remittances into the model.